1.4　拟研究的关键问题与研究方法

对村镇银行、资金互助社等RSFCIs的前期调查发现，“资金不足”是它们面临的主要问题，该问题要么是资金供应链单一所致，要么是资金供应渠道不通畅所致。供给渠道不通畅的原因并不复杂：首先，小规模RSFCIs盈利能力偏弱，难以给投资者提供可观的商业回报，使得投资者追加投资意愿较弱；其次，负有“三农”发展、减贫使命的RSFCIs风险较大，但得到的政策支持力度远远不及农村信用社等传统农村金融机构，税收优惠或减免、财政补贴等政策规定不是很清晰，在执行落实方面出现了省级差异，而且也不是很连贯；最后，捐赠额度较小，中国各类慈善组织在扶助贫困方面的思路还比较落后，大多停留在扶贫项目运行方面，尚未认识到捐赠资金通过正规金融机构才可以得到更有效的配置，实行“放贷前信用及还贷能力审核”“到期偿还原则”可以避免受助者因持续依赖救助而产生一种精神上的堕落。

无论是投资者、政策制定者还是捐赠机构，它们都代表了RSFCIs的某一种资金渠道，每一种渠道都有其独特的财务特征，对RSFCIs的发展战略、经营方法、管理理念、财务绩效与社会影响都会产生不同影响。依照资金供应链分析框架思路，讨论RSFCIs可持续性发展，必须先回答以下几个关键问题：

（1）RSFCIs财务可持续性与社会责任可持续性：对立矛盾还是相互融合促进？

（2）RSFCIs的融资工具与相应的资金渠道有哪些？

（3）它们的财务特征如定价机制、获取条件和成本如何？

（4）RSFCIs是否存在理想的资金供应链兼顾实现财务和社会影响可持续性？

（5）RSFCIs资金供应链的演化与其生命周期是否有关联？

（6）如何扩展RSFCIs资金供应链为之可持续性提供源源不断的可贷资金？

为此，本研究以中国银行业监督委员会确定的新型农村金融机构试点省份——吉林、内蒙古、湖北、四川、甘肃、青海为调研范围，筛选出2006—2008年成立的33家新型农村金融机构为样本机构，其中吉林6家、内蒙古4家、湖北6家、四川9家、甘肃5家、青海3家。然而，由于各种特殊原因，出于调研组成员安全的考虑，最后联系并确定了24个机构样本（表1-5）。

针对这24个RSFCIs样本，本研究采用“结构化问卷”和“半结构化访谈”方式，了解：①样本机构的基本情况，包括：成立时间、股东性质、业务拓展区域、目标客户、活跃目标客户、贷款额度、贷款用途、贷款期限、贷款方式、逾期贷款等；②样本机构的盈利能力，包括其资产、负债、所有者权益、利润、未分配利润等，然后计算出各机构的ROA和ROE；③样本机构的融资工具和资金渠道，判断：RSFCIs资金供应链是否会随着日渐成熟、盈利能力而发生变化？其“外部资金”与“内部资金”比例、“商业资金”与“公共资金”比例是否对RSFCIs的财务和社会可持续性产生影响？

问卷发放对象和访谈对象既包括样本机构的核心管理层，也有基层信贷员。湖北省仙桃北农商村镇银行、赤壁花旗小额贷款公司和曾都汇丰村镇银行认为盈利能力和资金渠道等数据是机构机密，管理层不太愿意与调研组打交道。几次沟通无果后，调研组不得不离开前往其他地方调研。其余各样本机构在保证机构财务信息安全的前提下提供了部分数据，数据缺失、遗漏乃至错误的现象不可避免，存在这种现象的机构数据，本研究不予采用。

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